2023 could be described as nothing short of a rollercoaster, as shown in Figure 1.  Our 2023 total return forecast of +8% to +12% ended up being too low relative to the actual calendar year total return of +13.7%, in spite of mid-year prices on the MSCI US REIT Index (Bloomberg: RMZ) falling to levels […]

REIT Outlook

January 1, 2024

2024 Chilton REIT Forecast | January 2024

Public REIT pricing has declined in a steep fashion over the past 22 months.  Although this is not the first time they have had a significant pullback, it is quite rare, as shown in Figure 1.  As recently as March 2020, the drawdown in the FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs Index (Bloomberg: FNER)* was nearly […]

REIT Outlook

November 1, 2023

Public REITs: Are We There Yet? | November 2023

In October 2023, the MSCI US REIT Index (RMZ) produced a total return of -4.4%. The Chilton REIT Composite outperformed the benchmark for the month by producing a total return of -3.6% gross of fees and -3.7% net of fees. Year to date, the Chilton REIT Composite has outperformed the RMZ by producing a total […]

REIT Commentary

November 1, 2023

REIT Commentary | October 2023

The capital window for commercial real estate has substantially lessened if not virtually closed for all but the best borrowers, just like in the early 1990’s.  In this cycle, property owners that financed with floating rate debt are seeing reduced cash flows, and many have negative cash flow after rising interest expense and other operating […]

REIT Outlook

June 1, 2023

The Bull Case for Active REIT Management | June 2023

Although the change in public REIT equity prices over the past 12 months would not suggest it, 2022 actually saw earnings growth arrive above our initial expectations.  Specifically, occupancy continued its positive trajectory, leading to further upward pressure on rents across nearly every property type.  Additionally, the inflationary pressures helped to slow new construction, creating […]

REIT Outlook

January 3, 2023

2023 Chilton REIT Forecast | January 2023

Reviewing your financial plan during times of market volatility may often bring clarity and peace of mind. While the market may be uncomfortable to watch, many clients find that reviewing their financial plan ensures them that they are still on the path to financial success. At Chilton we begin this process by inviting individuals to […]

Chilton Briefs

August 17, 2022

Financial Planning Cycle

The dominant force in the markets this year has been uncertainty.  Uncertainty around interest rates, inflation, and a myriad of other factors have driven investors into overdrive to figure out the playbook for changing times.  REITs have not been spared from the market turbulence, but we see the long term value proposition for REITs at […]

REIT Outlook

August 1, 2022

Today’s Equity REITs:  Dividend Raises in Economic Uncertainty | August 2022

Many of you are probably wondering the same thing – what’s been going on with mortgage rates and where are they headed? With inflation intensifying, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage has jumped from 2.78% in July 2021 to the more recent 5.54% as of July 21, 2022, according to Freddie Mac. To grasp […]

Chilton Briefs

July 28, 2022

Mortgage Rates – What’s Going On?

After meeting with over 25 companies in New York for the first in-person NAREIT sponsored conference since November 2019, we came away extremely positive on the fundamentals for REITs.  Across the board, leasing, occupancy, and rent growth are tracking at or above expectations, and the recent increase in interest rates has already slowed new construction, […]

REIT Outlook

July 1, 2022

Equity REITs: Takeaways from NAREIT REIT Week | July 2022

Things have changed drastically over the past six weeks in the market.  Volatility has spiked, and prices have retraced back to levels not seen in 12 months.  Some have been calling for a recession as early as this year.  Seemingly, there is little ‘good’ news for long-only investors, especially in REITs.  However, we see several […]

REIT Outlook

June 1, 2022

Equity REITs: Vulnerable to the Private Equity “Put” | June 2022

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