The capital window for commercial real estate has substantially lessened if not virtually closed for all but the best borrowers, just like in the early 1990’s.  In this cycle, property owners that financed with floating rate debt are seeing reduced cash flows, and many have negative cash flow after rising interest expense and other operating […]

Although the change in public REIT equity prices over the past 12 months would not suggest it, 2022 actually saw earnings growth arrive above our initial expectations.  Specifically, occupancy continued its positive trajectory, leading to further upward pressure on rents across nearly every property type.  Additionally, the inflationary pressures helped to slow new construction, creating […]

Reviewing your financial plan during times of market volatility may often bring clarity and peace of mind. While the market may be uncomfortable to watch, many clients find that reviewing their financial plan ensures them that they are still on the path to financial success. At Chilton we begin this process by inviting individuals to […]

The dominant force in the markets this year has been uncertainty.  Uncertainty around interest rates, inflation, and a myriad of other factors have driven investors into overdrive to figure out the playbook for changing times.  REITs have not been spared from the market turbulence, but we see the long term value proposition for REITs at […]

Many of you are probably wondering the same thing – what’s been going on with mortgage rates and where are they headed? With inflation intensifying, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage has jumped from 2.78% in July 2021 to the more recent 5.54% as of July 21, 2022, according to Freddie Mac. To grasp […]

After meeting with over 25 companies in New York for the first in-person NAREIT sponsored conference since November 2019, we came away extremely positive on the fundamentals for REITs.  Across the board, leasing, occupancy, and rent growth are tracking at or above expectations, and the recent increase in interest rates has already slowed new construction, […]

Things have changed drastically over the past six weeks in the market.  Volatility has spiked, and prices have retraced back to levels not seen in 12 months.  Some have been calling for a recession as early as this year.  Seemingly, there is little ‘good’ news for long-only investors, especially in REITs.  However, we see several […]

Even before the pandemic, a sustained pattern of migration to the Sunbelt was unmistakable, driven by warmer weather, lower taxes, job growth and comparatively very affordable real estate prices (note that although Southern California is sometimes considered the Sunbelt, today’s report will treat California as distinct from the Sunbelt).  For example, according to American Counts, […]

We are once again peeling back the onion and revealing the secret sauce that has been driving our performance for the past 17 years!  It has been eight years since we wrote the April 2014 REIT Outlook titled, ‘The Chilton REIT Roadmap’.  Given the recent volatility of stock prices following a broad market increase in […]

Years ago, the market had adages such as “when the shoeshine boy talks stocks” or “taxi drivers telling you what to buy” to serve as warnings for market tops.  Widespread equity interest was certainly one of the themes of the pandemic, but, as we turn to 2022, it feels like retail sentiment has shifted from […]