We recently attended the annual REITWeek conference, where we conducted 36 meetings with REIT CEOs and CFOs.  We also attended four organized dinners, one property tour, and a run around Central Park with a REIT management team to maximize our time in New York City with REIT executives. – The key themes were: 1) a […]

REIT Outlook

July 1, 2024

Equity REITs: Takeaways from REITWeek 2024 | July 2024

In recent history, e-commerce can be argued as the biggest societal shift to impact commercial real estate.  We’ve detailed the topic in retail outlooks from November 2022 and November 2021, and more recently in our Industrial Outlook from March 2024.  Many expected the surge in online shopping during the pandemic to supercharge the “death of […]

REIT Outlook

June 3, 2024

Retail REITs: Near Term Capex Caution Despite Strong Fundamentals | June 2024

Unfortunately for REIT investors, REIT prices have yet to decouple from movements in long term interest rates – and rates are rising again in 2024 as of April 30.  Because real estate typically generates a steady (and growing) yield, there has historically been a playbook that REIT prices should trade down when rates are rising, […]

REIT Outlook

May 1, 2024

An Interesting Time to Invest in REITs | May 2024

One of the most important jobs of REIT executives and Boards of Directors is capital allocation.  Depending on cost of capital, acquisition and development yields, and the point in the real estate cycle, a public REIT will have to employ different capital allocation strategies.  One of the forgotten and often purposely swept-under-the-rug line items is […]

REIT Outlook

April 1, 2024

The Time is REIT Now | April 2024

As a result of the normalization of e-commerce growth after the pandemic boom, there have been numerous headlines about retailers and logistics companies rationalizing their warehouse footprints, including from the 800 lb. gorilla, Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN).  However, these normalizations come off an exceptionally high base, and we believe the forward outlook for industrial is far […]

REIT Outlook

March 1, 2024

A Differentiated View Within Industrial REITs | March 2024

Following a spectacular year of total returns and relative outperformance in 2021, multifamily REITs have underperformed the MSCI U.S. REIT Index (Bloomberg: RMZ).  The underperformance for multifamily REITs has been a product of both the macro environment (rising interest rates) and record high apartment deliveries, especially in Sun Belt markets.  While the fears are for […]

REIT Outlook

February 1, 2024

Multifamily REITs: Navigating the Sun Belt Amid Record Supply | February 2024

2023 could be described as nothing short of a rollercoaster, as shown in Figure 1.  Our 2023 total return forecast of +8% to +12% ended up being too low relative to the actual calendar year total return of +13.7%, in spite of mid-year prices on the MSCI US REIT Index (Bloomberg: RMZ) falling to levels […]

REIT Outlook

January 1, 2024

2024 Chilton REIT Forecast | January 2024

We recently embarked on a three-day expedition to Los Angeles for the annual REITWorld conference.  We conducted 29 meetings, including 10 exclusive one-on-one sessions with REIT CEOs and CFOs.  Additionally, we attended two property tours organized by companies with properties in the area, for which we were able to not only meet with the CEOs […]

REIT Outlook

December 1, 2023

Property Type Round-Up from REITWorld | December 2023

Public REIT pricing has declined in a steep fashion over the past 22 months.  Although this is not the first time they have had a significant pullback, it is quite rare, as shown in Figure 1.  As recently as March 2020, the drawdown in the FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs Index (Bloomberg: FNER)* was nearly […]

REIT Outlook

November 1, 2023

Public REITs: Are We There Yet? | November 2023

Although healthcare was thrown for a loop during the pandemic, Senior Housing (SH) is experiencing some of the strongest fundamentals we have seen in a long time.  Rebounding occupancy, stronger rental rates, and moderating labor headwinds are generating double digit Net Operating Income (NOI) growth.  Occupancy is still below prior peaks, but we believe demographic […]

REIT Outlook

October 1, 2023

Senior Housing REITs: The Cure for Rising Rates | October 2023

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