Over the past 40 years, due in part to actions by the Federal Reserve, Americans have become more and more obsessed with yield.  Highlighted in Figure 1, after peaking at 15.8% in September 1981, the US 10 yr Treasury yield bottomed at 0.5% in August 2020.  As intended, the lower ‘risk-free rate’ increased demand for […]

REIT Outlook

September 1, 2022

All Yield is Not Created Equal | September 2022

The dominant force in the markets this year has been uncertainty.  Uncertainty around interest rates, inflation, and a myriad of other factors have driven investors into overdrive to figure out the playbook for changing times.  REITs have not been spared from the market turbulence, but we see the long term value proposition for REITs at […]

REIT Outlook

August 1, 2022

Today’s Equity REITs:  Dividend Raises in Economic Uncertainty | August 2022

After meeting with over 25 companies in New York for the first in-person NAREIT sponsored conference since November 2019, we came away extremely positive on the fundamentals for REITs.  Across the board, leasing, occupancy, and rent growth are tracking at or above expectations, and the recent increase in interest rates has already slowed new construction, […]

REIT Outlook

July 1, 2022

Equity REITs: Takeaways from NAREIT REIT Week | July 2022

Things have changed drastically over the past six weeks in the market.  Volatility has spiked, and prices have retraced back to levels not seen in 12 months.  Some have been calling for a recession as early as this year.  Seemingly, there is little ‘good’ news for long-only investors, especially in REITs.  However, we see several […]

REIT Outlook

June 1, 2022

Equity REITs: Vulnerable to the Private Equity “Put” | June 2022

Even before the pandemic, a sustained pattern of migration to the Sunbelt was unmistakable, driven by warmer weather, lower taxes, job growth and comparatively very affordable real estate prices (note that although Southern California is sometimes considered the Sunbelt, today’s report will treat California as distinct from the Sunbelt).  For example, according to American Counts, […]

REIT Outlook

May 1, 2022

Sunbelt Spotlight: Using REITS to Capitalize on Migration | May 2022

We are once again peeling back the onion and revealing the secret sauce that has been driving our performance for the past 17 years!  It has been eight years since we wrote the April 2014 REIT Outlook titled, ‘The Chilton REIT Roadmap’.  Given the recent volatility of stock prices following a broad market increase in […]

REIT Outlook

April 1, 2022

Chilton REIT Roadmap, Revisited | April 2022

Years ago, the market had adages such as “when the shoeshine boy talks stocks” or “taxi drivers telling you what to buy” to serve as warnings for market tops.  Widespread equity interest was certainly one of the themes of the pandemic, but, as we turn to 2022, it feels like retail sentiment has shifted from […]

REIT Outlook

March 1, 2022

Equity REITs: Ready to Flex on Uncertainty | March 2022

In this publication, we look back on 2021 and explain how our process resulted in several changes in the composition of client portfolios.  While the REIT volatility in 2021 was nowhere near where it was in 2020, the dispersion of performance between the top and bottom quartile REITs was elevated at 78 percentage points, which […]

REIT Outlook

February 1, 2022

REITs are Ripe for Active Management | February 2022

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