While forecasting has historically been a sport where the winners were ‘more lucky than good’, 2020 was a doozy for even the most contrarian predictions due to the COVID pandemic. Looking back to the Chilton 2020 REIT Forecast, there wasn’t much we got right, though the top overweights (cell towers, data centers, residential) did help […]
The Chilton REIT Team participated in the recent virtual NAREIT where we had one on one meetings with multiple management teams in several property sectors. Herein, we discuss our takeaways on how a medical solution to COVID is impacting commercial real estate overall, and then we drill down to assess the impact on the REITs […]
It has been 16 months since we dedicated a REIT outlook to retail, which is evidence of the massive uncertainty surrounding the future of brick and mortar stores. Even before COVID, the shift to online purchasing was growing at more than four times the rate of in-store purchases. In the face of e-commerce growth, we […]
The essentialness of self storage has been in doubt many times in the past due to its lack of institutional owners and widespread professional management. However, it’s stability in the Global Financial Crisis (or GFC) cemented its status as a defensive property type that can protect revenue losses in a recession, in spite of the […]
Commercial real estate has historically (and accurately) been described as ‘cyclical’, meaning there is a ‘reset’ at the end of every growth period. The reset has often come in the form of a ‘crash’, where the bottom falls out of pricing, and gains from the prior years are wiped out. As devastating as a crash […]
One cannot go very far in today’s information age without seeing someone on a mobile device. As applications are built for so many facets of our daily lives, the need for a higher level of and faster data only grows. Even back in the mid 2000s just before the dawn of the smartphone, the Blackberry, […]
We are continuing on our ‘Essential’ theme from the June 2020 Chilton REIT Outlook. For those who have not read it, we have developed a decision tree for determining how ‘essential’ a business is, and thus where an investor should be spending his or her time. As shown in Figure 1, it focuses on the […]
The word ‘essential’ has become very popular recently in its use by governing heads nationwide to delineate which businesses can remain open during the pandemic. A common definition uses the words, “…of upmost importance, something necessary or indispensable.” We have been using the term long before 2020 in describing our portfolio, but today it has […]
While we have never been through an experience such as this, we do know that the first thing to NOT do is panic. Since the outbreak of COVID-19 and its devastating impact on the US economy, our research has focused on first making a determination of the best ideas in sectors that can withstand a […]
This publication is sent with a heavy heart to all those who have been afflicted by COVID-19 thus far, understanding that we are likely just in the first few innings of a sharp recession and medical crisis. This experience should be a reminder of what is truly ‘essential’ in life, and we are proud of […]