As of July 31, 2021, the MSCI REIT Index has produced a year-to-date total return of +27.7%, which compares to our 2021 forecast of +13% to +19%.  While the actual return exceeds our expectations, we also believe this is not the time to reduce exposure to publicly traded equity REITs.  Since our initial forecast was […]

As we wrote in March 2021, we believed the rotation from growth to value (or COVID to Vaccine) REITs had created a buying opportunity for high quality companies with long term growth potential, such as cell tower REITs.  For example, from November 6, 2020 to March 1, 2021, the average performance for the lodging, regional […]

Unlike most REIT sectors that refer to the real estate’s use or property type, the net lease subsector is the only one that refers to a specific lease structure, which can be used in multiple property types. In a net lease structure, the responsibility to pay certain expenses is shifted from the landlord to the […]

Inflation refers to an economic scenario in which the price of a basket of goods increases, which means the currency is worth less than it was previously.  Economic studies have determined that some inflation is necessary to encourage investment, spending, and borrowing. The alternative scenario, called ‘deflation’, is just the opposite; cash and fixed income […]

In what we hope was the last virtual Citi REIT CEO Conference, we met with 16 REIT management teams directly and participated in approximately another 20 virtual meetings to discuss the current business fundamentals and what the post-COVID world may look like. In general, the tone at the conference was extremely positive, even for some […]

As we mentioned in the 2021 Chilton REIT Forecast, the rotation from the ‘COVID’ REITs (i.e. Cell Towers, Data Centers, Industrial) to the ‘Vaccine’ REITs (i.e. Regional Malls, Shopping Centers, Coastal Apartments, Lodging, Coastal Office) after the November 9 Pfizer announcement has been nothing short of extraordinary. While the increase in price over the past […]

After a 40 year decline in interest rates to record lows, both for corporate and government bonds, fixed income investors can pop the champagne and celebrate the gains and income they have received. Coupled with the strong S&P 500 performance in the past few years, traditional 60% equity / 40% fixed income (or ‘60/40’) portfolios […]

While forecasting has historically been a sport where the winners were ‘more lucky than good’, 2020 was a doozy for even the most contrarian predictions due to the COVID pandemic. Looking back to the Chilton 2020 REIT Forecast, there wasn’t much we got right, though the top overweights (cell towers, data centers, residential) did help […]

The Chilton REIT Team participated in the recent virtual NAREIT where we had one on one meetings with multiple management teams in several property sectors. Herein, we discuss our takeaways on how a medical solution to COVID is impacting commercial real estate overall, and then we drill down to assess the impact on the REITs […]

It has been 16 months since we dedicated a REIT outlook to retail, which is evidence of the massive uncertainty surrounding the future of brick and mortar stores. Even before COVID, the shift to online purchasing was growing at more than four times the rate of in-store purchases. In the face of e-commerce growth, we […]