Things have changed drastically over the past six weeks in the market.  Volatility has spiked, and prices have retraced back to levels not seen in 12 months.  Some have been calling for a recession as early as this year.  Seemingly, there is little ‘good’ news for long-only investors, especially in REITs.  However, we see several […]

REIT Outlook

June 1, 2022

Equity REITs: Vulnerable to the Private Equity “Put” | June 2022

Even before the pandemic, a sustained pattern of migration to the Sunbelt was unmistakable, driven by warmer weather, lower taxes, job growth and comparatively very affordable real estate prices (note that although Southern California is sometimes considered the Sunbelt, today’s report will treat California as distinct from the Sunbelt).  For example, according to American Counts, […]

REIT Outlook

May 1, 2022

Sunbelt Spotlight: Using REITS to Capitalize on Migration | May 2022

Following a mostly calm ride in 2021, the stock market experienced serious turbulence due to both expected and unexpected factors in the first quarter of 2022.  Persistent inflation, a new Federal Reserve interest rate hiking cycle, and a violent incursion by Russia into Ukraine generated volatility not seen in a year.  The S&P 500 underwent […]

Portfolio Insights

April 18, 2022

Portfolio Insight | 1st Quarter 2022

We are once again peeling back the onion and revealing the secret sauce that has been driving our performance for the past 17 years!  It has been eight years since we wrote the April 2014 REIT Outlook titled, ‘The Chilton REIT Roadmap’.  Given the recent volatility of stock prices following a broad market increase in […]

REIT Outlook

April 1, 2022

Chilton REIT Roadmap, Revisited | April 2022

Years ago, the market had adages such as “when the shoeshine boy talks stocks” or “taxi drivers telling you what to buy” to serve as warnings for market tops.  Widespread equity interest was certainly one of the themes of the pandemic, but, as we turn to 2022, it feels like retail sentiment has shifted from […]

REIT Outlook

March 1, 2022

Equity REITs: Ready to Flex on Uncertainty | March 2022

In this publication, we look back on 2021 and explain how our process resulted in several changes in the composition of client portfolios.  While the REIT volatility in 2021 was nowhere near where it was in 2020, the dispersion of performance between the top and bottom quartile REITs was elevated at 78 percentage points, which […]

REIT Outlook

February 1, 2022

REITs are Ripe for Active Management | February 2022

The S&P 500 Index continued its remarkable run in the fourth quarter, climbing the proverbial wall of worry to close the year on a very high note.  Amid concerns about inflation and supply chains, Federal Reserve tapering, and COVID-19 variants, the index gained 11.0% in the quarter and hit a new all-time high on December […]

Portfolio Insights

January 13, 2022

Portfolio Insight | 4th Quarter 2021

In 2021, REITs produced one of the best calendar year total returns in history, clocking in at +43.1% through December 31 as measured by the MSCI US REIT Index (Bloomberg: RMZ).  Once again, our forecast missed the actual return by more than 1,000 basis points (or bps).  However, the top end of our forecast at […]

REIT Outlook

January 4, 2022

2022 Chilton REIT Forecast | January 2022

In November, we participated in the annual REIT World conference where we had the opportunity to speak with 31 REIT management teams.  While we hope it will be the last 100% virtual conference sponsored by NAREIT, we did find it productive to speak to current portfolio companies as well as connect with several new companies […]

REIT Outlook

December 1, 2021

Property Type Round-Up from REIT World | December 2021

It has been exactly one year since we published ‘Essential REIT Evaluation: Retail’, and, looking back on the piece, one could describe it as overly cautious and concerned with the longer term impact of the pandemic on this sector.  However, hindsight is 20/20, and we were working with much different information a year ago.  Just […]

REIT Outlook, Uncategorized

November 9, 2021

Retail REITs: Revisited and Reconsidered | November 2021

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