In recent history, e-commerce can be argued as the biggest societal shift to impact commercial real estate.  We’ve detailed the topic in retail outlooks from November 2022 and November 2021, and more recently in our Industrial Outlook from March 2024.  Many expected the surge in online shopping during the pandemic to supercharge the “death of […]

Unfortunately for REIT investors, REIT prices have yet to decouple from movements in long term interest rates – and rates are rising again in 2024 as of April 30.  Because real estate typically generates a steady (and growing) yield, there has historically been a playbook that REIT prices should trade down when rates are rising, […]

The S&P 500 continued its nearly unabated move higher in the first quarter, vaulting upward by 10.6% to end the quarter at 5,254, a new all-time high.  Inflation picked up marginally, as did earnings expectations.  Investor confidence that the Federal Reserve can achieve its inflation target without causing a recession also helped drive the market. […]

One of the most important jobs of REIT executives and Boards of Directors is capital allocation.  Depending on cost of capital, acquisition and development yields, and the point in the real estate cycle, a public REIT will have to employ different capital allocation strategies.  One of the forgotten and often purposely swept-under-the-rug line items is […]

In March 2024, the MSCI US REIT Index (RMZ) produced a total return of +2.0%.  The Chilton REIT Composite underperformed the benchmark for the month by producing a total return of +1.7% both gross and net of fees.  Year to date, the Chilton REIT Composite has underperformed the RMZ by producing a total return of […]

As a result of the normalization of e-commerce growth after the pandemic boom, there have been numerous headlines about retailers and logistics companies rationalizing their warehouse footprints, including from the 800 lb. gorilla, Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN).  However, these normalizations come off an exceptionally high base, and we believe the forward outlook for industrial is far […]

Following a spectacular year of total returns and relative outperformance in 2021, multifamily REITs have underperformed the MSCI U.S. REIT Index (Bloomberg: RMZ).  The underperformance for multifamily REITs has been a product of both the macro environment (rising interest rates) and record high apartment deliveries, especially in Sun Belt markets.  While the fears are for […]

The S&P 500 regained its winning ways in the fourth quarter, ripping higher by 11.7% to close at 4,769, just 1% below its all-time closing high reached in January 2022.  The S&P 500 advanced a healthy 26.3% in 2023, a welcome reversal of the steep losses in 2022.  Inflation growth continued to slow during the […]

The S&P 500 hit a new 2023 high in late July before giving back some of its gains in the last few weeks of September.  For the quarter, the index finished down 3.3%, its first quarterly drop this year.  Inflation growth continued to slow, but continued Fed hikes, advancing commodity prices, and a re-accelerating economy […]

2023 could be described as nothing short of a rollercoaster, as shown in Figure 1.  Our 2023 total return forecast of +8% to +12% ended up being too low relative to the actual calendar year total return of +13.7%, in spite of mid-year prices on the MSCI US REIT Index (Bloomberg: RMZ) falling to levels […]