2023 could be described as nothing short of a rollercoaster, as shown in Figure 1.  Our 2023 total return forecast of +8% to +12% ended up being too low relative to the actual calendar year total return of +13.7%, in spite of mid-year prices on the MSCI US REIT Index (Bloomberg: RMZ) falling to levels […]

We recently embarked on a three-day expedition to Los Angeles for the annual REITWorld conference.  We conducted 29 meetings, including 10 exclusive one-on-one sessions with REIT CEOs and CFOs.  Additionally, we attended two property tours organized by companies with properties in the area, for which we were able to not only meet with the CEOs […]

Public REIT pricing has declined in a steep fashion over the past 22 months.  Although this is not the first time they have had a significant pullback, it is quite rare, as shown in Figure 1.  As recently as March 2020, the drawdown in the FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs Index (Bloomberg: FNER)* was nearly […]

Although healthcare was thrown for a loop during the pandemic, Senior Housing (SH) is experiencing some of the strongest fundamentals we have seen in a long time.  Rebounding occupancy, stronger rental rates, and moderating labor headwinds are generating double digit Net Operating Income (NOI) growth.  Occupancy is still below prior peaks, but we believe demographic […]

The drumbeat calling for the fall of office real estate has been steady and unrelenting since REITs peaked on December 31, 2021.  As we reported in our May 2023 Chilton REIT Outlook titled, “Office REITs: Where is the Bottom?” most people are not surprised to hear that office REITs (as measured by the Bloomberg REIT […]

Since the last Chilton REIT Outlook covering the self-storage sector was released in October 2020, “Essential REIT Evaluation: Self Storage”, the sector has grasped the attention of investors due to the unprecedented levels of demand and considerable outperformance through the pandemic.  The sector has also been grabbing headlines recently due to the Extra Space (NYSE: […]

The Chilton REIT Team recently embarked on a three-day journey to New York City, braving the haze of Canadian wildfire smoke that engulfed the air in early June.  This expedition was fueled by a multitude of management meetings and property tours, all in conjunction with the highly significant REITWeek annual conference, hosted by NAREIT.  For […]

The capital window for commercial real estate has substantially lessened if not virtually closed for all but the best borrowers, just like in the early 1990’s.  In this cycle, property owners that financed with floating rate debt are seeing reduced cash flows, and many have negative cash flow after rising interest expense and other operating […]

It’s no secret the office sector faces extreme stress due to the surge in remote work.  Though there was some progress on return to office (RTO) last fall, technology tenants reversed a multi-year leasing spree while financing risks only added fuel to the decline in 2023.  As a result of the pandemic’s ‘forced experiment’ with […]

In June, 2022, we published ‘The Private Equity Put’, essentially urging all public REIT teams to consider going private at valuations that now most companies would only dream of getting.  Unfortunately, soon after that piece was published, the financing environment changed dramatically for private real estate players.  – While the tombstones may have different names […]