A ‘correction’ is defined as a decline of 10% or more from a recent high. As of February 23, 2018, the MSCI US REIT Total Return Index (Bloomberg: RMS G) was trading 11% below its recent high on December 18, 2017. Some pundits assert that a correction can be healthy for a rising market, as […]

REIT Outlook

March 1, 2018

Equity REITs at Bargain Prices: An Asymmetric Opportunity

Single-family rental homes (or SFRs) have historically been dominated by local “mom and pop” investors considering they own 99% of the 16 million rental homes in the United States. In fact, until the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09, institutions avoided the asset class due to the lack of available scale and relatively high prices. By […]

REIT Outlook

February 2, 2018

Single-Family REITs: Consolidating a Fragmented Industry

2017 was another roller coaster of a year for REITs, exemplifying how short-term volatility is merely noise in the long-term goal of producing mid to high single digit total returns. Our +5-7% projected 2017 total return for the MSCI US REIT Index (Bloomberg: RMS G) proved to be in the ballpark, as it finished the […]

REIT Outlook

January 2, 2018

2018 Chilton REIT Forecast

Nareit, located in Washington DC, is the trade organization primarily representing real estate investment trusts—REITs. Combining the assets of all 200 REITs, public and private, produces nearly $3 trillion of real estate. It conducts two main conferences each year that attract REIT management teams, investors, lenders, and investment bankers. The November conference, called REIT World, […]

REIT Outlook

December 1, 2017

REIT World Discoveries

Despite consensus expectations for rising long term interest rates over the past five years, the US 10 year Treasury yield is still trading at below where it was four years ago.  Now, with a new Federal Reserve Chair nomination expected by November 3, global economic growth picking up, potential for tax reform, and tightening Fed […]

REIT Outlook

November 2, 2017

Back by Popular Demand: REITs and Interest Rates

Natural disasters are, unfortunately, part of life.  They are predictably unpredictable, which is an attribute that can influence population growth, job growth, and real estate.  The invention of insurance, provided by companies that can diversify their risk among multiple cities, has enabled cities that are prone to such disasters to attract residents and employers alike.  […]

REIT Outlook

October 1, 2017

Silver Lining to Harvey & Irma: Surging REIT Fundamentals

Supply chain innovation, e-commerce, and measured new supply have led to the best operating environment for industrial REITs that we can remember.  However, investor demand has also surged.  Industrial real estate is trading at record-high cash flow multiples in the public and private markets.  For the first time in our memory, the best coastal warehouses […]

REIT Outlook

September 5, 2017

It’s a Great Time to Own a Warehouse

It seems every day a negative news article is written about brick-and-mortar (B&M) retailers, questioning the future of retailers and retail real estate due to the impact of e-commerce (also read “Amazon” (NASDAQ: AMZN)).  As a result, the S&P Retail sector ETF (NYSE: XRT) is down 5.9% year to date, and the Bloomberg REIT Shopping […]

REIT Outlook

August 1, 2017

REITerating our Conviction on High Quality Retail Real Estate: Strip Centers

Stock performance over the long term should be based on fundamentals, but short term performance can be heavily influenced by sentiment.  Nearly impossible to quantify, sentiment can most certainly be felt, seen, and heard.  We believe the recent collapse in mall and shopping center REIT share prices may be the product of one-sided anecdotes, misleading […]

REIT Outlook

July 5, 2017

REITerating our Conviction on High Quality Retail Real Estate: Malls

After 5 years of above average apartment REIT Same Store Revenue (SSRev) growth, concerns of increasing supply in 2016 threatened the outlook for the sector.  As a result, apartments (Bloomberg: FNAPTTR) underperformed the MSCI US REIT Index (Bloomberg: RMS G) by 570 basis points (or bps) in 2016.  Yet, in spite of the negative sentiment, […]

REIT Outlook

June 1, 2017

Apartment REITs: A Deep Dive into Supply/Demand Forecasting

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