The dominant force in the markets this year has been uncertainty.  Uncertainty around interest rates, inflation, and a myriad of other factors have driven investors into overdrive to figure out the playbook for changing times.  REITs have not been spared from the market turbulence, but we see the long term value proposition for REITs at […]

After meeting with over 25 companies in New York for the first in-person NAREIT sponsored conference since November 2019, we came away extremely positive on the fundamentals for REITs.  Across the board, leasing, occupancy, and rent growth are tracking at or above expectations, and the recent increase in interest rates has already slowed new construction, […]

Things have changed drastically over the past six weeks in the market.  Volatility has spiked, and prices have retraced back to levels not seen in 12 months.  Some have been calling for a recession as early as this year.  Seemingly, there is little ‘good’ news for long-only investors, especially in REITs.  However, we see several […]

Even before the pandemic, a sustained pattern of migration to the Sunbelt was unmistakable, driven by warmer weather, lower taxes, job growth and comparatively very affordable real estate prices (note that although Southern California is sometimes considered the Sunbelt, today’s report will treat California as distinct from the Sunbelt).  For example, according to American Counts, […]

We are once again peeling back the onion and revealing the secret sauce that has been driving our performance for the past 17 years!  It has been eight years since we wrote the April 2014 REIT Outlook titled, ‘The Chilton REIT Roadmap’.  Given the recent volatility of stock prices following a broad market increase in […]

Years ago, the market had adages such as “when the shoeshine boy talks stocks” or “taxi drivers telling you what to buy” to serve as warnings for market tops.  Widespread equity interest was certainly one of the themes of the pandemic, but, as we turn to 2022, it feels like retail sentiment has shifted from […]

In this publication, we look back on 2021 and explain how our process resulted in several changes in the composition of client portfolios.  While the REIT volatility in 2021 was nowhere near where it was in 2020, the dispersion of performance between the top and bottom quartile REITs was elevated at 78 percentage points, which […]

In 2021, REITs produced one of the best calendar year total returns in history, clocking in at +43.1% through December 31 as measured by the MSCI US REIT Index (Bloomberg: RMZ).  Once again, our forecast missed the actual return by more than 1,000 basis points (or bps).  However, the top end of our forecast at […]

In November, we participated in the annual REIT World conference where we had the opportunity to speak with 31 REIT management teams.  While we hope it will be the last 100% virtual conference sponsored by NAREIT, we did find it productive to speak to current portfolio companies as well as connect with several new companies […]

It has been exactly one year since we published ‘Essential REIT Evaluation: Retail’, and, looking back on the piece, one could describe it as overly cautious and concerned with the longer term impact of the pandemic on this sector.  However, hindsight is 20/20, and we were working with much different information a year ago.  Just […]